The Future For Investors

Great insight into growth trap , ageing crisi , economic shift ... A must read for new investors ..

Stocks for long run is excellent......and this is 1 is very good. Professor siegel has immense potential...after reading these 2 books one can get full insight of stock market.

Great book by Siegel an essential read for any serious investor.

"Stocks for the long run"を出版して以降、推薦銘柄やベビーブーマー引退後の株価についての質問が急増したため、その２つの質問に答えて書かれた本、と著者は前書きしている。 国家レベル（ブラジルと中国）や企業レベル（Standard OilとIBM）の例を挙げて、実体経済（利益成長率）とマネー経済（株価上昇率）は別物というユニークな持論を展開している。多くの投資家は実体経済とマネー経済を混同しており"Growth Trap"に陥っている、と警告している。”目から鱗”でした。 推薦銘柄やベビーブーマー引退後の株価といった２つの質問に対し著者は極めて明快な答えを用意している。 Berkshire Hathawayが個別銘柄としては唯一推薦ポートフォリオに組み込まれていること、ベビーブーマー引退後も株の買い手は存在することを確信できたことは収穫でした。

I really enjoy reading this book. Jeremy Siegel is very clear. I would love Siegel to publish a new edtition with new data (the book was published in 2005) and also containing more ETF information and fundamentally wighted indexes. Excelent book.

A must read for anyone buying stocks. Amateur or Pro the knowledge one gains from reading this book will help you understand the world of investing. Reviewing and understanding the 200 year graph by itself is worth the price of the book. It must be quite an experience being Professor Siegels student.

Altro grande titolo di Siegel dopo il classico "Stocks for the long run" (alla 5a edizione inglese). Il libro è del 2005 ma sviluppa una tesi originale che non dipende dal tempo.... l'idea è di confrontare il rendimento delle azioni di company mature con quelle new entry e tech in particolare... il risultato e il modello che emerge è molto interessante! Spedizione arrivata nei tempi previsti, senza problemi!

The Future for Investors is Jeremy Siegel's sequel to his popular Stocks for the Long Run. Overall, he makes the same point in his new book as he did in the last one: Over long periods of time, stocks have outperformed other liquid forms of investment such as bonds, bills, cash, and gold. While reaching this same conclusion, The Future for Investors does offer some new or revised insights that make it well worth reading. Some highlights include the following: 1. Since its inception in 1957, the S&P500 index has underperformed the price movements of those of its original 500 firms that still exist as independent companies. The price movements of the new firms added to the index have underperformed those of the originals even though the new firms have often had higher earnings growth rates. 2. Selecting stocks for growth alone often results in paying too much for a stock. While Siegel doesn't spell it out, he seems to be advocating something akin to a PE-to-Growth (PEG) or similar ratio. (Comment: I personally go one step beyond PEG and use PE-to-Growth-to-Uncertainty-in-Growth by dividing the conventional PEG ratio by the standard deviation of the earnings per share growth rate.) He does advocate several strategies based on the selection of low priced/high yield stocks, similar to and including the popular Dogs of the Dow strategy. 3. Dividends count in many ways. Most of the recent cases of managers cooking the books to overstate earnings occurred in firms that did not pay cash dividends, since dividends are much harder to fake than earnings. The payment of a steady or increasing cash dividend offers another measure of safety in buying a stock. The recent reduction in the double taxation of dividends makes them much more attractive. Finally, reinvesting dividends is analogous to dollar cost averaging, causing the investor to buy more shares when the price is lower had fewer shares when the price is higher. Over time, this reinvestment will pay off handsomely. 4. Much has been written about the aging of the baby boomers and what will happen when they retire. The worst case scenarios describe their departure from the workforce as resulting in (1) no one to produce the goods and services they want to buy in retirement and (2) no one to buy the stocks and bonds that they need to sell to finance buying those goods and services. Siegel is an optimist; I share his optimism and hope we are correct. Looking at the developing world, he sees an inverse demographic pattern: Lots of young people and fewer old people. If the developing world develops rapidly and broadly enough, those young people will be able to (1) produce the goods and services sought by the boomers and (2) invest in their own retirements by buying the investment the boomers must sell. 5. To participate in (and to support) this optimistic outcome, Siegel advises investing as much as 40% of one's portfolio in non-US securities. Selecting and buying foreign stocks is even harder than selecting and buying US stocks, so here Siegel puts a lot of emphasis on mutual funds and exchange traded funds tied to various world indices.