Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

This is undoubtedly one of the most important book I have read in the recent times. This book will have a lasting impact on any one who is involved in decision making in unpredictable world. If you regularly deal with uncertainty and chance while making critical decision then this book will be invaluable to you. The book is on the topic of how do you correctly assign the probability on the events that are very uncertain. Some examples given in the book - Will they find traces of polonium poisoning in the exhumed body of Yasar Arafat. Or Will there be another terrorist attack in Europe in the next quarter. Who will win the election. You get the idea...of a kind of uncertainty we are dealing with all these outcomes. The book articulates in great detail the methodology used by few superforecasters, the ordinary folks, to arrive at correct probability of such very uncertain events. These people were all part of Good Judgement project initiated by author and his wife and funded by NIA or something. It ran for 4 years and these superforecasters beat CIA analysts (who had real time field intel) by 30% or so. They used internet, google alerts, Baysian probability etc tools to gather and process the data to arrive at their prediction. Many of these superforecaster have background in computer science, Math, technology and engineering. But the methods can be applied by any graduates. They are not beyond the capabilities of any graduate. It just calls for very structured analytical analysis of data and not basing your decisions on just an intuition. The book also tells us that a team of superforecasters is even more accurate than single superforecaster...provided they freely share the data with each other, independently research and process the data, share their opinion without fear and overall treat each other with respect. The decision making methodology and concept posited in this book has serious practical implications for certain groups of people like for example....stock investors, top executives, business development managers, opinion makers, forecasters etc. The book is written by author with help from Gardner who is a reporter and professional writer. The book is greatly enhanced by this partnership. The book is very easy and interesting read due to Gardner's contribution. I have no hesitation in recommending this splendid book to all who deal with uncertainty in their professional life. Five star Book.

The book starts with a slow pace introducing readers to the concept of forecasting on any subject. It covers the probability of military strike to successful launch of new product with some real world examples. If prospective readers are planning to buy this book just to get an insight into some mathematical formula then they will be disappointed. But then this is what makes the book interesting and legible to common readers. The subject becomes interesting from chapter 4 "Super forecasters" and then it really picks up pace. I am only halfway through the book and have started liking the approach. Only shortcoming being the small letters and the print not very clear.

A really nice book by Fetlock and Gardner on their findings from the "Good Judgement Project". He talks about 'Superforecasters' and how they can forecast events with high accuracy using their "mathematical way of thinking". This book is not just for people who are into forecasting but for everyone to improve their decision making skills using the tools mentioned in the book. These tools can be added to our framework of "mental models". Some key takeaways: o Have an "inside view/ outside view" approach to decision making. o Know what’s the base rate and avoid "base rate fallacy" o Have a probabilistic way of thinking. o Beliefs are hypothesis that needed to be tested, not treasures that need to be protected. o Take ‘wisdom of the crowd’ and consider different viewpoints like ‘dragonfly-eyed’. o Being aware of cognitive and emotional bias. Verdict: Highly recommended!

Readable

3.25/5. The thesis of the book revolves more around superforecasters and less around superforecasting. The Ten Commandments at the end are the best part of the book. The notes sections has some quite valuable resources too. This is not to say it’s a boring book of sorts, it’s just that it tells way more stories rather than exploring the core idea of how to actually work on forecasting.

This is a great book and fantastic for ppl trying to make forecasts

Forecasting is a tricky business. Broadly, no one wants to do it. For the corageous few who try, the job is not easy. Forecasters may not be 100% accurate 100% of the times...but they provide a hazy shooting target where the alternative is shooting in the dark. And for that, they should be commended. This book provided some great ideas for structuring the approach for making forecasts. While most forecasters follow the methodologies in varying degrees, this book is a great collection of all the things you should pay attention to while creating your forecast.

It starts with the idea of prediction / forecasting. One might think there isn't much need of accurate forecasting in your profession/personal life. But as you progress with this book, you'll learn a lot of interesting things. Very insightful things on leadership, organisation, politics etc. are explored here. Give it a shot. You won't regret.