Understanding How the Future Unfolds: Using Drive to Harness the Power of Today's Megatrends

The authors, Drs. Tse and Esposito, have done an admirable job popularizing very complex academic forecasting tools that involve complex mathematical algorithms along with social and psychological theories used to predict behaviors by individuals, large groups and global companies.Their thesis asserts that global technology, business, group and individual behavior patterns are changing at a rate that may soon be amenable only to AI complex analysis, and they are suggesting that human beings must develop positive, proactive Big Think tools to understand, and be able take actionable, timely intelligent measures and become comfortable with Chaos and probability theories.They have developed a systems tool called DRIVE that looks at elements in five behavior fields to develop a unified system that allows them a more effective statistical system for advising business groups as wells as individuals.They use the term MEGA TRENDS to define technology, economic and political changes that only behave in a predictable manner when analyzed with complex chaos systems algorithms.Some of the global mega trends they discuss as troublesome and challenging: 1. Resources are becoming scarce when faced with a population that is moving from 7 billion towards 12 billion, 2. Median age in the Western countries is rising, with major economic impacts on individual countries' ability to fund pensions and healthcare, 3. Volatility is increasing in scope, frequency and economic spheres, raising deep concerns for global trading systems and migration, 4. Inequality is increasing across the globe with ownership of all assets increasingly concentrated in fewer hands, corporations and multi-generational trust funds-as well as between age groups with unpredictable political consequences arising quickly from a declining jobs basis driven by a rapid deployment of robotics and AI driven manufacturing and software platforms and 5. Enterprising global changes that are, increasingly, changing individuals' ability to stay employed, fund retirement and raise children, because new ideas and technologies are changing increasingly faster across a global market place.Some deep concerns they raise are: 1. Will our food system need to become so factory-based and hybridized that our health outcomes may become jeopardized?, 2. Will drinkable water become so scarce that it will impact our ability to sustain large urban centers?, 3. Will climate change accelerate so quickly that farmers and wine makers will need to either develop new hybrids or relocate their field?, 4. With a global population appearing to have unstoppable inertia, will our global consumption and manufacturing system be able to develop into a sustainable closed loop recycle system? and 5. Can global and individual countries' voting cohorts develop sufficient energy to re-balance the distribution of economic benefits from growth to allow individual workers and families to raise living standards, instead of continuing to just benefit shareholders of corporate stocks and bonds.The authors state (p.163) that " the systems we have in place are no longer working for the majority of people." and that " We need to look closely at the specific technologies we know are going to last so we can evolve with them."For examples, on p. 181, they caution that " there will be a lot of unemployed university professors" as MOOC classes reach out to remote learners, and that " No human being can win the war of cost effectiveness against a robot or automation."On a positive note they state on p. 187 that we will need to accept "chaos as a norm," and that individually, we need to learn to become comfortable thinking in terms of non-linear complexity, "which is a richer playing field ripe with considerable opportunity."The authors caution all of us with "What will the future look like if we do nothing today?" and soberly with " Few businesses will be able to thrive if society as a whole deteriorates." (p. 225).Drs. Terrence Tse and Esposito have produced a thoughtful thesis that deserve to be discussed among more people, at all levels, and across the entire world- before mega trends such as hybridization of food, AI and robotical manufacturing along with a sensor-rich 5G will, perhaps, set an irreversible course with unpredictable consequences, similar, perhaps, to the ecological damage from the grounding of the Exxon Valdez in Alaska.

Let's start with full disclosure - I'm jealous of the authors! As someone who has been working on, thinking about and doing research on megatrends for years (including a three year project with the Marketing Consumer Insight group at Alcatel-Lucent) Tse and Esposito wrote the book that was needed in the market. While megatrends has been a buzzword for some time, and trendwatching a common practice for even longer, this is the first cogent discussion on how to connect the dots and what to do with the dots thus connected. Although DRIVE works better as a metaphor than as an easy-to-remember acronym, the framework is effective for anyone trying to make sense of the future while thinking strategically about it and its implications. This is not yet another scenario building exercise but an attempt to give decision makers a framework that is relatively easy to use alone in deep work mode (hat tip to Cal Newport) or in a C-level group discussion. A very good complement to Dodd & Navaro's book The Three Tensions especially in terms of applying short term and long term thinking concomitantly. While I make it sound like a book for top management, Tse and Esposito made it actually readily accessible to anyone interested in thinking about "where this is all going". Which was maybe one of my surprises, as this is actually a book that is all about sense-making and even storytelling at the most important level - that of society and even humanity.

If you are generally wary of popular, "business" books, you have a solid point: too many, too shallow, too unproven, and far too many promising the latest winning idea, or tactics, about pretty much everything under the sun from strategy to leadership, from organization to behavior. Tedious, redundant, unnecessary, and soon to be forgotten.Now, here's the good news: this book IS different. Terence Tse and Mark Esposito, being the serious thinkers and scholars that they are, have produced – in their greatly readable book – a compelling narrative that makes sure we do not miss the forest for the trees. They offer a thoroughly convincing description and explanation about megatrends – resource scarcity; inequalities; demographic and social changes; volatility, scale and complexity; enterprising dynamics – and how they inexorably interact and influence each other.They turned the blessed task of popularization into actual insight, thanks to sheer intellectual power and writing clarity. An invitation to think and act for all of us, in business, in government, within the NFP sector, as civil society and ordinary citizens. And despite the huge challenges and threats the world faces, we all face, the authors’ “true position is one of optimism and hope”, and the foundation of that is utterly persuasive.Read, and give copy of the book to the five (or fifty!) most talented youth in your life!

The 5 stars come from:1 it does work towards opening people's mind when it comes to analysing our surrounding world, through the lens of megatrends2 The trends analysed make a great sense and are agreeable upon, not just by scholars, but the entire society at large. They are tangible and thus very real and relevant3 The book is a nice and easy read nonetheless it touches upon concepts of extreme complexity and delicacy for our times and society.I'd recommend the book to pretty much everyone who finds interesting understanding where we're at and we're we might head to in our societies.

Macro picture that affects how you deal with micro issues. Seeing opportunities and challenges from a different perspective enables you to be ahead of the curve but also take more forward thinking decisions as a leader. The book outlines the mega trends which affect us all on both macro and micro level.Had a pleasure of attending lectures by both Mark and Terence and the level of insight there is replicated in accessible but highly valuable form here.

This book is like a guide into the present. It shifts the focus away from the past and the future, because the present is what we need to understand if we want to try to shape the future and not just passively observe how it unfolds.This book brings hope and positivism providing us with a new tool that enables us to see the future from a different perspective. The DRIVE, showing us the big picture of the world we are living in today, allows us to stand up and become active drivers of our lives and of our future.A must-read book for anyone, who is driven by curiosity and cannot just watch at the world waiting for the future.

Me pareció un excelente libro, muy fácil de leer y lleno de ejemplos. Me dio una guía de como basar mis decisiones futuras en datos, lo cual ayuda a que la efectividad aumente y la incertidumbre del futuro disminuya. 100% recomendado.

Quote: 'No human being can win the war of cost effectiveness against a robot or automation, but we can find ways to enhance and contribute to ist evolution without being sacrificed in the process.'The book enables us readers to reflect and look forward into the future with an open-mindset. It helps future leaders to understand mega-trends and anticipate the future developments.It is a remarkable read with a great sense of humour and simplicity.