The Ministry for the Future: A Novel

60 Billion dollars a year is a lot of money. That simple point is at the heart of my thoughts on The Ministry for the Future, a new work by Kim Stanley Robinson, which I've just finished. Before the review, some caveats. I have read several of the author's novels - 2312, New York 2140, Red Moon. I like them all. This one is not bad. I bought it. You should buy it, too. That said: The Ministry for the Future is different. It is a collection of vignettes and reports from a variety of sources and perspectives (even the sun gets to have its say) amounting to a loose, mostly unconnected set of storylines with lightweight characterizations and a plot with less of a traditional narrative flow. It throws out economic theories, technical solutions, and proposed political changes to address the challenge of climate change, but none in great detail. Another critic said the book still 'oddly works' despite these flaws and I have to agree. I think it works because it is a broad survey of a more hopeful future in which humanity actually addresses and turns the corner on climate change and all of these little reports collectively add up to a positive outcome. That's encouraging and that is what makes it fun to read. Most fiction on this topic is decidedly dystopian. This book is optimistic. Refreshing, to say the least. It's still odd because a typical novel has more structure, more compelling characters (that you want to root for), and their journey and struggles, dangers and risks get more attention - like the author's other books. I came away wondering why one character was such a focus, their story not all that inspiring or sympathetic. Whereas another far more interesting character doing more risky and morally ambiguous activities is barely mentioned, their shadowy side only briefly mentioned. This second character is truly interesting, but we learn very little about them. The organizational geek in me keeps coming back to that $60 billion a year. That's the notional budget of the Ministry for the Future, a global agency set up to represent the future humans that don't yet have a voice but will be impacted by climate change. It's a fascinating idea, but this notional ministry gets very little substantive treatment. It has an office in Zurich. An Irish woman as director whose chief skill seems to be glaring at people she doesn't agree with. There are a dozen directors (biblical metaphor?) who engage in periodic brainstorming sessions. There are brief vignettes of various initiatives overt and otherwise, but not so much substantive discussion of what, how, and why it works. And that's a shame because we probably need such an agency in the future. But what is described on these pages is what I would think of as a small nonprofit with a venture capital portfolio. It's not an agency with a $60B budget. Consider what $60 billion will get you. The US Department of Energy has 14,000 employees, 95,000 contractors, 80+ labs around the country and does cutting edge research and development (okay, nuclear weapons, but also advanced solar, etc.). It also supports an academic research network - and it does all of that for about half of our notional Ministry for the Future's budget. I know a certain Fortune 500 IT technology company with over 500,000 employees around the world and the revenue supporting this vast organization is less than $45B and that includes a margin. The U.S. Air Force has a budget of roughly $160B a year (a lot more, of course, than the Ministry for the Future), but that gets you 5,000+ high tech aircraft, 320,000+ uniformed airmen(people?) and a civilian workforce of 320,000 - and of course the power of enough advanced high-tech weaponry to dominate any adversary anywhere in the world (for at least a few more years anyway). You get the point, I hope. You can do a lot with $60 billion a year. A Ministry for the Future with a budget of $60 billion is going to be a busy place. Whoever is in charge is going to be spending a lot of their time overseeing the different divisions that spend this much money, visiting key projects, negotiating major agreements. They are not just going to be holding a monthly staff meeting to brainstorm ideas or hosting the occasional conference. All of the vignettes and initiatives mentioned are projects funded by the Ministry for the Future, but the dots aren't quite connected. Running such an agency is going to be a 24x7 job and that person is going to have to know the details, all of them. And with public funding, there will be a governing body that requires endless reporting and likely has different stakeholders with different agendas and conflicts, not to mention audits. You don't get that much public money for free. Maybe that's too much to envision and manage in a novel, but, again, we just might need a Ministry for the Future - in the near future. I wanted to see the idea developed more, much less the seen and unseen struggles of what it tries to accomplish and how it works with all of the other state and non-state actors that make-up the global community. I'll close with my recommendation to buy the book. Despite some gaps and flaws and my very minor criticism, it 'oddly works', as they say. It adds up to a positive narrative of how we might possibly deal with global warming, which is all too rare these days and that, by itself, is worth the price of admission. Some of the projects to save the Earth are inspiring. If it gets you thinking that we can collectively solve this problem (global warming), then that by itself qualifies this book as a masterpiece, despite its flaws. So, go buy it. Start imaging a future that is more optimistic and less dystopian.

The book starts out with a major heat wave disaster in India killing 20 million people, resulting in greater willingness to combat climate change as well as anger and desire by the survivors. The Ministry of the Future is an UN agency established in 2025 by the Paris Agreement. It was tasked with advocating for the rights of future generations especially with respect to climate change. We follow Mary Murphy and other characters in this agency throughout the following decades passed mid-century. Another central character is Frank May, an American aid worker, who was present when the Indian heat wave hit. He was traumatized and resorted to extreme actions. Since aspects of the Ministry appeared to be secret and its purpose was to save the world for future generations it reminded me a bit of the foundation in Isaac Asimov’s foundation series. An agency consisting of selected people who were not entirely aware of what was going on but ultimately saved the galactic civilization for the future. I loved the author’s reference to the Tzadikim Nistarim, the hidden righteous ones saving the world from destruction. The book is also sprinkled with words of wisdom, factual information, and fun riddles, all of which have solutions except the riddle in chapter 95. Try to figure that one out. I loved what he said on page 510 “Foxing their own cognitive errors might be one the greatest accomplishments……”. Did you know there are about 60 billion birds alive on Earth? The book is both a bit dark in the beginning but overall very optimistic. Most of the imagined solutions he provide, such as the carbon coin, I found to be both doable and ideologically neutral. He lays out the case against focusing on adaptation in a profound manner, discusses geoengineering in an informed manner, and drives home that carbon emissions is a cost that is unaccounted for, an externality. He came across as someone who had good insights into climate solutions. That said his socialist leanings and even soft spot for communism became apparent. This plus his naïve adulation for Vendana Shiva, a pseudo scientist, was off putting, and I found his mocking of the economic sciences both uninformed and hypocritical. He expresses distaste for rich people while being one himself. Yes I looked up his net worth. Even though his far left leanings was a problem to me it did not influence his writing too much, and I found myself agreeing with much of what he promoted. There are several story lines narrated by different narrators, some unnamed, the jumps between the story lines and the insertions of riddles or wisdom words or facts felt a bit disjointed and was at times confusing, but also fun. That combined with his left leaning viewpoints is why I am not giving the book five stars. However, I loved the setting, the character development, the many gripping stories, his profound understanding of climate science, natural science, international politics, and his love for nature. The author is not only a good writer and a good story teller but also intelligent and well informed, almost like an Asimov. The book was a great pleasure to read.

This book is a work of genius. I should declare immediately that I am a ‘doomer’. I consider that humanity is now too far down the road of climate altering action and general resource overshoot to make the effective U-turn that most fervently hope to be possible. The book is constructed as a very clever series of mostly short chapters that both educate and keep the plot moving. Some chapters follow the main characters as they struggle creatively and mightily to force the entrenched powers-that-be to take an increasingly more radical approach to the efforts needed to turn spaceship Earth around from unmitigated disaster. Other chapters provide haunting and jarring vignettes in the form of first-person accounts of events occurring around the world. Interleaved with the above are short, informative and insightful essays on various relevant topics such as capitalist economics, international politics. PTSD, geoengineering, climate refugees, species extinction and alternative economic mechanisms. The titular organization which came to be known colloquially as ‘The Ministry for the Future’ is started as a quasi-independent spin-off from the United Nations. Its charter was to represent, on the world stage, the future generations of humans (current children included) as if they were a significant country and constituency. To give them a voice. The book begins with Frank May, an aid worker in India, who is caught up in an extremely lethal heatwave. This event is quite traumatic, and it kills about twenty million people. The shock waves from this event set a lot of things in motion including a very bold and radical action taken unilaterally by India. Multiple geoengineering efforts are undertaken. A radical restructuring of the worlds deeply entrenched financial systems is both persuaded and forced with much pushback from financiers, central bankers, oligarchs and the wealthy elites. Eventually more than 100 million refugees all over the world are on the move and bold solutions have to be found for them. Airships replace planes for air travel and solar/wind powered multi-masted schooners reappear on the oceans. Large scale wildlife corridors are established all over the planet. The earth is allowed to heal. As a doomer and pessimist, I have to say that I was very impressed. This book gave me a lot of new perspectives. It made me feel a small chink of hope. Robinsons prose is excellent and is a pleasure to read. His arguments are mostly quite solid. However, Robinson often seems rather naïve (or else prone to wishful thinking) as to the feasibility of getting the entrenched power-elites to radically rethink their world views. On the other hand, perhaps the power of the masses really can be brought to bear if enough people wake up. As he says, “When push comes to shove, it’s always humans looking at humans; and when a thousand people stand looking at one person, it’s clear who has more power”. In the end, I was convinced that these are the kinds of things that we (humanity as a whole) *should* be doing and indeed should have started doing long ago. The book is particularly realistic in the sense that the events described take place over a period of some forty years. There is no quick fix to our predicament if indeed there is a fix at all. This is a significant book. The fact that it made a doomer like me stop and think “What if that could still work?” and “m..m..maybe” surprised me. Highly recommended.

There are two scientific approaches to the current debates around climate change and its consequences. Climate scientists, biologists and environmentalists underscore the existential threat posed by the climate crisis, the dangerous feedback loops, the tipping points and irreversibilities and therefore the urgency to radical changes. Social scientists, on the other hand, highlight our cognitive failures, our trends of self-deception, our inability to act (as individuals) in the face of theoretical threats, and our inability to cooperate (as species) in the face of collective action problems of large scale, involving millions of people. In sum, we must act decisively, but we cannot do it, namely, we are doomed. In this novel, his latest, KSR attempts to present a brighter view of our future. The novel puts forward an optimistic narrative in which humanity face up to the challenges posed by the climate crisis and deal with them successfully, collectively, without sacrificing its dignity. “We are not doomed,” the author suggests; at least we can imagine a better world, a good Anthropocene. The novel (an essay of sorts) describes a fictionalized response to the climate crisis, imagines the reforms implemented over a few decades, from the late 2020s to the 2040s. KSR emphasizes economic reforms, what we might call the resetting of capitalism: carbon taxes, carbon currencies, blockchain technologies to control corruption and tax evasion, crowdfunding, employee-owned enterprises, progressive taxation (billionaires are either vanished or banished), and so on. But there is more: geoengineering in the Antarctica, regenerative agriculture, rewilding of half of the planet, culture change of a global scale (the emergence of a new religion, a Gaia devotion), and even terrorism (deliberate violence against petro-states and polluters). In the novel, there is a permanent tension between slow bureaucratic efforts to saving the world by changing the laws and violent actions aimed at accelerating change. Democracy booms amid the crisis. India becomes an example to the world (a multiethnic, ecological democracy). Central bankers embrace environmental goals. Economists trash their usual metrics. Capitalism shrinks. And Saudi Arabia and Russia become benign geopolitical players. Even blimps and sailboats make a come back. Humanity slows down, becomes more contemplative and cooperative. In short, utopia ensues. This utopian vision is sometimes illuminating; other times, a bit exasperating. KSR tends to oversimplify complex problems. His idealistic bent shows too often. One feels sometimes that eco-socialism is being presented as a ready-made solution to all our problems. There is an interesting similarity between The Ministry for the Future and Island (Aldous Huxley's last novel). Both are utopian novels. Both present a world view in fictional form: the characters mere puppets of their authors' preaching efforts. Both have sublime moments. Both are written by seasoned writers, craftsmen of the written word. And both lean dangerously towards exaggerated exposition. Huxley begins its utopia with an epigraph by Aristotle, “In framing an ideal we may assume what we wish, but should avoid impossibilities”. In other words, utopian writers must respect some restrictions, must operate within certain limits. Had KSR heeded this admonition, he would have probably written a better novel, a novel more humane, with a more refined sense of the tragic, and more likable characters. Overall, The Ministry for the Future is a long exposition of a particular ideology, of his author's simplified worldview.

Kim Stanley Robinson's latest novel, THE MINISTRY FOR THE FUTURE, joins many of his other works in the climate fiction genre, most recently NEW YORK 2140. As usual, Robinson comes at the topic from a different angle than one would expect. The focus of NEW YORK 2140 is not the catastrophe that got the world to where it was at (although some of that topic is explored) but how civilization in 2140, particularly in New York, is dealing with the aftermath - how we would live, work, travel, and get along (or not) with each other. THE MINISTRY FOR THE FUTURE realizes that climate change is here and affecting us right now, and tries to bridge the gap between the mess we're in and, hopefully, a good place that we'll be in somewhere down the line. The title of the book comes from the name of a fictional subsidiary body of the Paris Climate Agreement. The organization's goal, in a very broad sense, is to define and develop ways that humanity can correct the wrongs it has done to the environment, with a focus on reducing carbon admissions. It certainly deals with a lot more than that, of course, as the main characters, Mary Murphy - head of the Ministry - and Frank May - a survivor of a brutal and devastating Indian heat wave that is described in gruesome detail in the first chapter of the book - and the rest of humanity come to realize that the problem of climate change and how to reverse it is not just a scientific problem, but a societal problem. While the plot - and to be honest, what there is of a plot - centers around Murphy, Mays, and the ways the Ministry tries to influence world behavior to positively change the way we live our lives so that the earth can sustain humanity for the years to come, the novel really is an exploration of the things that can be done to make those changes. From the introduction of carbon coins, to pumping water from underneath the glaciers in Antarctica, ways of preserving wildlife, to influencing the world population to no longer use airplanes, and so many others, Robinson gives us his thoughts on how we can do better now so that the world can be better in the future. I would be remiss if I didn't mention a couple of things about the structure of the book. Robinson does not tell a straightforward narrative. Rather, he uses a myriad of methods to present his story to us: eyewitness accounts, essays from non-living entities, encyclopedia entries, interviews, and poetry, just to name a few, are all used in individual chapters. The other, of course, is the famous Robinson infodumps. Many do not like infodumps. Robinson has gone on record as supporting and actually reveling in infodumps in his stories. He feels they are necessary to tell the story, and he's not shy about it. And to be clear, he is in fine form when it comes to infodumps in MINISTRY FOR THE FUTURE. But I tend to agree with him in this case. The amount of information the reader needs to understand in order to comprehend the mess we are in and try to get out of the mess is necessary for the book to work. I was fascinated by the way the infodumps were handled in this book. The point here is not to discuss the overall merits of infodumps and how various authors present them. The point is that they can be useful, and I believe they are in this case. The book is narrated by what seems to be a cast of thousands, although it's really only 11. I've listened to a few of Robinson's novels that use an ensemble cast to do the narration, and I enjoy that kind of presentation. It keeps me interested and focused on the story. The use of narrators for particular types of chapters was a good choice, and as soon as I heard a particular voice I knew what we were going to be talking about. One of the themes that emerges is that the fight against climate change is ongoing. The last sentence of the book says it in a nutshell: "Because we never really come to the end." It took a long time to get in the mess we are in, and it's going to take a long time and a lot of work to get out of it, if we ever really can. Maybe a Ministry for the Future is one place to start.

From the Mars Trilogy thru his recent focus on global climate change, KSR has been an important SciFi voice on “the future”. What he says is always worth thinking about―even if just to sharpen one’s own, perhaps contrasting, views. That’s true of this book, too, & while it’s in some ways rather a disappointing read, it makes a lasting impression. In KSR’s best work, his ideas on an “ideal” society are built seamlessly into the fictional “world” & the narrative shows how the techno-economic structure actually works―a sort of proof-of-concept. This book, however, lacks any real narrative structure―really, just a sequence of vignettes, each describing some aspect of a strategy to deal w/ climate change. A lot of nice ideas―but the main ones don’t really seem to fit together as a coherent decarbonization story. Two key ideas are: (1) blockchain-based platforms for ”carbon coin”, a digital currency to incentivize decarbonization, & “YourLock”, a distributed social-finance system; & (2) E.O. Wilson’s beautiful “Half-Earth” vision of a rewilded planet with human populations concentrated in mega-cities (where health, education, & infrastructure can be efficiently scaled), & everywhere else a nature-preserve/carbon-sink. But vast blockchain networks & megacities would be hugely energy-intensive. Where’s this energy coming from? KSR’s idea is, more or less, (3): pave over the planet w/ low energy-density renewables like solar & wind. But “eco-modernists” like Bill Gates & other energy realists convincingly argue that this won’t be sufficient to support a technologically-advanced society. Therefore ideas (1) & (2) don’t work, either. So, when greenhouse gas concentrations actually begin to decline at the end of the book, it’s a kind of phony deus ex machina happy ending. Unedifying, especially since KSR is usually so good at scientifically well-founded world-building. There’s an alternative to KSR’s idea (3) that would support (1) & (2). Following the eco-modernists, supplement renewables w/ higher energy-density technologies. For example, leverage emerging “small modular reactor” nuclear technology (mass-produced, always-on, & safe) for local electrification of homes, offices, & production facilities (minimizing dependence on a grid & battery storage). Then use some of this power to make hydrogen & other “electrofuels” (“drop-in” replacements for petroleum liquids in current jet & automotive engines & fuel distribution networks) for transportation. So, given KSR’s clear intent to propose strategies to prevent catastrophic climate change, why not consider these high energy-density technologies? Perhaps because KSR views “degrowth” as an ideal―a steady-state, no-change economy in static balance w/ nature. But is this really desirable? Ignoring climate externalities for the moment, economic growth is a good thing. It generates resources to improve material living standards, expand healthcare & education, & broaden access to leisure & cultural activities―all benefits that people everywhere value. Indeed, eco-modernists emphasize that, as a matter of social justice, the living standards of the rest of the world must rise to match those of the richest 10%. This requires economic growth. In fact, as shown by UN & World Bank data, 50 years of “neoliberal” globalization (scornfully dismissed by KSR) have disproportionately benefited the world’s poorer regions, lifting (literally!) billions out of extreme poverty. With this in mind, “degrowth” is justified ONLY if necessary to achieve global decarbonization. This is just not the case. Vaclav Smil’s analyses of historical “energy transitions” show how markets (i.e., people participating in social exchange) respond to increases in energy costs (due to resource constraints, shifts in trade patterns, government policies, &c) by evolving new sources & technologies. So, rather than a static “degrowth” equilibrium, it’s surely better to change incentives (via carbon taxes, green technology subsidies, even KSR’s “carbon coin”, &c) & transition to “clean growth” featuring nuclear electrification & electrofuels, as well as renewables. As in past energy transitions, living-standard gains can continue, even accelerate, as these innovations drive new industries & opportunities. Finally, & very important, a growing economy will make it easier to compensate (via social transfers & re-skilling) those who are initially disadvantaged by decarbonization policies.

When I started this book it took be aback because it jumped around in every direction, but eventually one settles into it, and yet still this book is like 106 mini-chapters, each with a pet idea from the author or someone the author talked to and was impressed by. The story opens with Frank, one of the main characters trying to survive a major heatwave that affects much of India. This is to give us an idea that someday we are going to get a climate reckoning, and it will be harsh, and that even then some of us will not want to take it seriously. We are introduced to other characters, other affects of climate change, what those who are compelling to try to take action to bring about a solution to it decide, and how it all works together to form a story that is about as wide and broad based as any science-fiction I've ever read. Another reviewer mentioned "The Sheep Look Up" by John Brunner which I read as a member of the SF Book Club, and did think of as I was reading this book. The story unfolds following Frank and introduces us to other characters, and along the way also introduces us to data about climate change and ideas as to how to deal with it. The official way is thought Ministry Of The Future. Anonymous terrorists for the planet drive a lot of the change, and in that case I wondered how in a world as wired as ours such terrorists could not be found and caught. But I wanted to suspend my disbelief and enjoy the story - and even if in a fantasy feel like there is some ways human beings can fix this and abort the murder of our planet of birth. Much as I liked the book and rate it 5/5, I have to admit it took me a long time to read because it was disorienting. I had to keep going back to remember what happened, and who was who, but that problem diminishes over time as you get further into the story. But it also did not help that I would read this, or rather listen to the Audiobook each night before going to sleep, so I ended up repeat listening to a lot of it, but that was actually good. I'll just say I recommend it, because if I get to writing about it I will be here for hours dissecting the story, going over the good, and the not so good, but all in all it was a unique, well thought out, deliberate format designed to have an affect on the reader, and I think that worked very well. Trying to grapple with this story is like trying to grapple with Climate Change - it's too big and far ranging, so there is a kind of resonance and recursion to the format that is a good way to cover climate change. It was a clever and noble effort and I will reward it with a 5/5.

Creative and haunting, yet hopeful. I always enjoy his work. Slow at times, but only because he cares about nuance in relationship. Highly recommend.

The story is great and entertaining, which is important because the book deals with some very heavy issues around climate change and the fate of humanity. I always thought I was "climate literate". However, Robinson managed to make me realise the massive challenges of climate change and the sheer scale of what needs to be done to mitigate it. He made me understand that my thinking or, more importantly, my feeling about climate change was off by an order of magnitude. At the same time, Robinson shows a way forward and gives an optimistic outlook on what humanity could achieve if we stand together to save the planet for future generations.

掲載通りの発送と新品がちゃんとした包装で届きました。

Highly recommend to anyone interested in innovative, technological and economic solutions to the climate crisis.

Very compelling story. Highly recommend.

Este libro trata sobre la crisis climática, es ficción, pero podría convertirse fácilmente en realidad, se cuenta a través de los ojos de muchos personajes a través de capítulos cortos que mantienen la historia en movimiento rápido y hacen que el libro sea difícil de dejar. Gran historia, bien contada, muy recomendable.