Naval Operations Analysis: Third Edition

Superior ProbabilitiesNaval Operations Analysis (3rd ed) By Wagner, Mylander and Sanders, 1999A truly fascinating book. It uses the scientific method, statistics, mathematics, linear programming and game theory to analyze and maximize the effectiveness of naval assets.Chap 1. Operations Analysis: A Scientific Basis for Operational Decisions. The Formation and Analysis of a Problem: being clear about what you want to accomplish. Do you want to maximize shooting down of airplanes that are attacking your ships, or do you want to minimize the number of ships sunk?Chap 2. The Decision: Payoff matrixes and optimizing them for highest possible payoff, highest average payoff, highest guaranteed payoff or least regret. Game theory, saddle point games, mixed strategies.Chap 3. SimulationChap 4. Sonar and Radar Sensors Sonar: passive sonar equation, active sonar noise limited equation, active sonar reverberation limited, glimpse probability of detection. Radar: horizon, scattering range equation, reflection and cross-section, antennas, signal to noise, interference, probability of detection and false alarms, electronic warfare, clutter, counter measures and stealth.Chap 5. Cumulative Detection Probability. Probability of detection given separated glimpses, continuous looking, inverse cube law.Chap 6. Lateral Range Curves and Sweep Width. The probability of detecting a target versus the closest approach between the searcher and the target. Basic math. Simplifications. Spacing between searchers.Chap 7. Search and Patrol. Area searches. Inverse cube law.Chap 8. Computer Assisted Search. Area search looking for a moving target that may be moving randomly. Using Bayes theorem to estimate failure probability. Modifying search plan as information is presented about possible contacts with uncertain position and uncertain probability.Chap 9. Barrier Patrols. Patrol of a channel (arbitrary width) while maximizing the detection probability of a moving target before it exits the channel. The target is assumed to have a constant (but unknown) speed and course and an unknown starting point and time.Chap 10. Mine Warfare. Counter measures. Counter-counter measures. Game theory view of mine fields.Chap 11. Bearing Only Target Motion Analysis. Passive sonar. Range estimation. The need to turn.Chap 12. Target Coverage. Point targets. Area targets. Damage probability vs. distance from target, dispersion, firing errors, aimed fire, CEP (circular error probable), defense in depth, layered defense with limited defensive weapons.Chap 13. Fleet Air Warfare. The problem of protecting the task force from air attack. Airborne early warning (AEW), combat air patrol (CAP), AEW stationing, CAP stationing, point defense, area defenseChap 14. Reliability. Mean time to failure (MTF), wear out, spares, fault trees.Appendix A. Probability - The Mathematics of UncertaintyAppendix B. Linear Programming Formulation of Matrix GamesAppendix C. Use of Decibels

I understand that shows a good path of lead in this type of research and area, it would help a lot to me and my staff to understand our analysis process and way ahead

I needed this book for my job, as I need to follow the procedures outlined in this book for some of my work. The book works for what I need it for, however, there is a lack of detail. This is a book that brushes over a lot of concepts, and allows you to put your foot in the door on the important concepts. However, for the technical specifics I have had to get my research else where. It's well organized, and the language is put in a way that someone with no technical background can grasp the concepts, and understand enough what the important stuff is.

I believe that is so important to understand how can we make a good analysis.

Thanks. Thats was i really wanted

It's a great book about operations research apllied to naval operations. It presents a simple approach to search methods and explains thoroughly the lateral range curve.